Kerala, widely hailed for its strong healthcare network and literacy rates, is set to witness a serious health issue. A recent study at the Kerala Cancer Conclave 2025 held in Thiruvananthapuram has warned that there would be a sharp rise in the number of cancer cases in the state by 2030. Led by Prof Prashant Mathur of ICMR-NCDIR, the study highlights a projected increase in breast and lung cancers, which might put the healthcare infrastructure of Kerala under severe stress unless precautions are initiated soon.
Alarming Growth Outlook
Currently, Kerala registers approximately 88,460 new cancer cases annually, with 43,110 in men and 45,350 in women. This already accounts for nearly 5.7% of India's total cancer incidence. The figures are set to rise further, reaching about 45,813 cases among women and 43,930 in men by 2030.
Kerala's cancer trend isn't increasing alone, it is rising at a faster rate than the national trend. Official statistics show that the age-adjusted incidence of cancer in Thiruvananthapuram rose from 121.7 per 100,000 men (2006‑08) to 137.8, and went higher to 169 per 100,000 as of 2022.
Shifting Patterns: Breast and Lung Cancer on the Rise
The study highlights clear gender-based cancer patterns.
- Among men, the most common cancers are lung (14%), oral cavity (10%), colorectal (10%), prostate (9%), liver (8%), and others (49%)
- For women, breast cancer dominates at 34%, with thyroid (11%), colorectal (9%), uterine (6%), and ovarian (4%) following.
Crucially, both lung and breast cancers are expected to see continued growth:
- Lung cancer continues to be the primary cause of cancer death in men, accounting for 28.9% of male cancer fatalities in 2024 vs a mere 7.8% nationally.
- Breast cancer, responsible for 37.5% of female cancer deaths in Kerala, far exceeds the 14.9% national average.
The state is thus staring down a sharp surge in both incidence and mortality, particularly from breast and lung cancer types.
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What Is Driving the Increase?
Experts at the Conclave stress the interplay of demographic shifts and lifestyle transitions:
- Ageing population: With higher life expectancy, Kerala's demographic pattern naturally witnesses higher age-related cancer cases.
- Lifestyle shifts: Sedentary lifestyles, processed food, increased obesity, and alcohol intake are all risk factors associated with breast and lung cancers.
- Better diagnosis and overdiagnosis: High availability of screening, especially for thyroid and breast cancers, can inflate incidence numbers.
Increasing Social and Economic Burden
An increasing economic burden is matched by an individual one. In India, breast cancer will amount to US $13.96 billion annually by 2030, compared to $8 billion in 2021. These statistics highlight the requirement of immediate policy and community-level interventions.
Kerala’s Response and Gaps Ahead
The state has initiated multiple strategies:
Kerala Cancer Control Strategy 2018–2030, including preventive oncology clinics in all districts
- Mass screenings: In 2022‑23, more than 1.53 crore individuals aged 30+ were screened for Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs); 9 lakh referrals ensued, of which 79,000 were for breast and 96,000 for cervical cancers.
- Care infrastructure expansion: The Regional Cancer Centre (RCC), Thiruvananthapuram, doubled its caseload between 2020 and 2023, increasing from 11,191 to 15,324 new cases. RCC and partners are also extending free chemo and diagnostics.
Yet significant challenges remain. Experts emphasise educating the public to act on symptoms, complete treatment, and continue follow‑ups. The onus is on integrating robust early detection, lifestyle counselling, and treatment adherence into community health.
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Looking Ahead: Urgent Needs
To avoid the projected rise in cancer cases by 2030, here are some measures that should be followed:
- Boost breast and lung cancer screening, especially for high‑risk populations.
- Promote early detection among the population based on modifiable risks, including tobacco, alcohol, obesity, and physical inactivity.
- Ensure end‑to‑end care: early detection, public access, and completion of treatment protocols.
- Scale up equitable infrastructure, including district‑level oncology clinics and palliative care networks.
If implemented, these layered policies could significantly blunt the forecasted spike in breast and lung cancers. Otherwise, policy leaders warn that Kerala risks a public health and economic crisis on its horizon.
[Disclaimer: This article contains information provided by an expert and is for informational purposes only. Hence, we advise you to consult your professional if you are dealing with any health issue to avoid complications.]