The COVID-19 pandemic posed unprecedented challenges to our healthcare system. It affected millions and claimed several lives around the world. While it was and continues to be one of the deadliest diseases in the history of humankind, experts believe the worst is yet to come. As per reports, global health authorities have raised alarms around a new possible pandemic which could be driven by “Disease X”. But what is Disease X and why is it likely to occur? Here are 10 things to know about it.
What Is Disease X?
According to the World Health Organization (WHO) website, Disease X "represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease".
This indicates that Disease X is currently a theoretical concept used in epidemiology and public health to highlight the possibility of a future global health threat. It means that there may be infectious agents or pathogens in the natural world that have the potential to jump from animals to humans and cause widespread illness, even though they have not been identified or studied extensively. Disease X could therefore be caused by a virus, a bacterium or fungus.
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Disease X - The Term Was Coined In 2018
The now popular term "Disease X" was first coined and adopted by the WHO in February 2018 on their shortlist of blueprint priority diseases.
Among The Most Dangerous Diseases
Disease X is a part of the list of "priority diseases" on the WHO website, which includes ebola virus disease, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Nipah and Zika as well as COVID-19 among others.
20 Times Deadlier Than COVID
According to UK health expert Dame Kate Bingham, who chaired the UK's vaccine task force in 2020, Disease X could be 20 times more deadlier than COVID-19 and lead to approximately 50 million fatalities.
She said, “Let me put it this way: the 1918–19 flu pandemic killed at least 50 million people worldwide, twice as many as were killed in World War I. Today, we could expect a similar death toll from one of the many viruses that already exist.”
In an interaction with the Daily Mail, Bingham said, “The world will have to prepare for mass vaccination drives and deliver the doses in record time…Imagine Disease X is as infectious as measles with the fatality rate of Ebola (67%). Somewhere in the world, it's replicating, and sooner or later, somebody will start feeling sick.”
What Do We Know So Far
According to Bingham, so far scientists have identified 25 virus families consisting of thousands of individual viruses. She believes that there are millions of viruses yet to be discovered, and these have the potential to evolve into pandemics.
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Globalisation - A Key Contributor
Although the exact cause of increasing virus transmissions and spread is unknown, the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) in the United States suggests that globalisation and the increased flow of humans and goods to all parts of the world could be one of the possible reasons.
Another reason cited includes urbanisation. In several parts of the world, people live in overpopulated and unhygienic environments where infectious diseases thrive.
In addition, the NCBI shares other reasons, including climate change, increased human-animal contact, and a shortage of health workers.
WHO's R&D blueprint
The WHO's Research and Development (R&D) blueprint is a worldwide strategy and readiness framework, which enables the swift initiation of research and development efforts when epidemics occur.
Its primary purpose is to speed up the development of reliable tests, vaccines, and treatments, with the aim of preserving lives and preventing extensive crises, as outlined on the WHO's official website.
The R&D blueprint strategy was first introduced during the Ebola emergency in West Africa, which began in March 2014.
One Of The Initial Actions Is Allocating Necessary Financial Resources
According to Bingham, one of the initial actions is to allocate necessary financial resources, meaning putting "the money on the table." She told the Daily Mail, “The monetary cost of inaction is seismic. After all, even Covid-19 - a milder virus than Disease X - managed to leave us holding a bill for $16 trillion in both lost output and public health expenditure.”
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Vaccinations
Currently, there are no approved vaccines available against Disease X. However, Bingham notes that it is important to develop a range of "different prototype vaccines for every threatening virus family".
Precautions To Take
While there is no telling when the next potential pandemic will hit us, it is best to stay prepared on an individual level. Here are some ways to keep yourself protected from infectious diseases:
- Practise good hand hygiene
- Cover your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing
- Maintain physical distancing from sick individuals
- Stay up to date with vaccinations
- Follow public health guidelines and wear masks when necessary
Also Read: FAQs about Disease X